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Wales' hopes of reaching the knockout stages of the World Cup were dealt a blow after a crushing defeat by Iran, but were boosted after England failed to beat the United States.
Rob Page's side were underdogs against Iran on Friday morning. Rouzbeh Cheshmi and Ramin Rezaeian gave Carlos Queiroz's side a 2-0 victory in second-half added time after goalkeeper Wayne Hennessey was sent off.
But Wales' almighty task of breaking out of the group became a little more difficult as Gareth Southgate's side ended in a 0-0 draw against USA on Friday night, missing a huge opportunity to secure their place in Group 16 .round.
Wales need just a win against England on Tuesday 29 November to have a chance of making the last 16. At the end of Friday, they were bottom of the group with just one point, while the USA are third with two points.
Whilst they will need a famous win over England, one of the tournament favourites, to survive, Wales will also need to rely on the result of the other game, USA-Iran, to come their way, as well as the goal. change.
But what needs to happen for Wales to sneak through? Here's what needs to happen on Tuesday, November 29th to have a chance at the knockout rounds:
Scenario 1: Wales draws England, USA and Iran
If Wales defy the odds and beat Gareth Southgate's side, they will be up to four points and level on points with England. Iran will also have four points if they can get a draw against the United States, with the latter finishing bottom of the group with three points.
This is where goal difference comes into play. Both Iran and Wales go into Tuesday on goal difference (-2), but a win for Wales means they are down by one, while a draw for Iran means the goal difference is unchanged, which would means that Wales will end up winning at least the top two in the group and go through to the next round.
They could even top the group but would need to beat England by at least four goals to beat them on goal difference.
Scenario 2: Wales beat England by more than 4 goals, USA beat Iran
Sticking with the prospect of Wales beating England, Rob Page's side could also sneak into the last 16 if the United States beat Iran. That could happen, as the USA are four places ahead of their opponents in the world rankings, but with just two points so far at the World Cup, they also aim for their first win of the tournament on Tuesday.
If the USA beat Iran, they will take it to five points, meaning they will top the group if Wales beat England. It would then be between Wales and England for second place, but again Rob Page's side need to win by at least four goals to prevail.
Scenario 3: Wales beat England by more than 4 goals, Iran beat USA
If Iran follow up their win over Wales with another against the USA, there is still a chance they will qualify for the next round. Should Wales also beat England, Iran would top the group with six points, while Wales would be level on points with England, with four points separating the two.
Again, this would come down to goal difference, with Wales needing to win by four goals to eliminate England and progress to the last 16.
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